Bahrain's Shiite Leader Demands Withdrawl of Saudi Forces

From the AP article:

"Bahrain's Shiite Muslim opposition on Wednesday demanded that the Saudi-led military force helping to put down protests leave the country immediately.

"The demand underscored the sectarian element of the anti-government movement in the tiny, strategic island kingdom, where majority Shiites are demonstrating for more rights and freedom against a Sunni dynasty that has ruled Bahrain for two centuries.

"About 1,500 troops from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Sunni-led Gulf states entered Bahrain two weeks ago at the invitation of Bahrain's monarch. The king also declared emergency rule and cracked down on protesters, killing at least 20.

"A senior Shiite opposition leader, Ali Salman, said the foreign troops must leave because the opposition rejects 'any military intervening for any party' in Bahrain. Salman also said Iran shouldn't interfere.

"'We don't want Bahrain to turn into a conflict zone between Saudi Arabia and Iran,' which has condemned the deployment, Salman said at a news conference in the capital, Manama. 'That's why we object to the Saudi intervention. We call for immediate withdrawal of the troops, and we reject Iranian interference.'

"The Gulf Cooperation Council force entered Bahrain earlier this month over the causeway that connects it to Saudi Arabia, with the stated mission of helping keep order.

"Shiites around the Middle East protested GCC intervention. Iranian authorities charged the troops were in Bahrain to enforce Sunni monarchy's oppression of Bahrain's Shiite majority."

Hmm. I wouldn't count on a withdrawal from the GCC anytime soon.

Bahrain's King Declares "External Plot" has been Ended

From Reuters:

"Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa said a foreign plot against his kingdom had been foiled and thanked troops brought in from neighbouring countries to help end increasing unrest after weeks of protests.

"'An external plot has been fomented for 20 to 30 years until the ground was ripe for subversive designs ...I here announce the failure of the fomented plot,' the state news agency BNA quoted him overnight as telling troops.

"King Hamad told the forces that such if such a plot succeeded in one Gulf Arab country, it could spill into neighbouring states, BNA said.

"The ferocity of a crackdown last week by Bahrain forces, aided by the entrance of troops from Sunni-ruled Gulf countries, stunned Bahrain's majority Shi'ites, the main force of the protests, and angered the region's non-Arab Shi'ite power Iran.

"Iran, which supports Shi'ite groups in Iraq and Lebanon, has complained to the United Nations and asked neighbours to join it in urging Saudi Arabia to withdraw forces from Bahrain.

[...]

"Bahrain has also said previously that it arrested opposition leaders for dealing with foreign countries."

It's pretty hard to say exactly how foreign influenced the Bahraini protests actually were. Certainly there was support from Iran as well as from other Shi'ite dominated countries and organizations. The actual extent of that support is difficult to ascertain.

Bahrain Arrests Opposition Leaders

From Reuters:

"The Gulf Arab state of Bahrain has arrested opposition figures for communicating with foreign countries and inciting murder and destruction of property, state television said on Thursday.

"A statement said the unnamed men were 'leaders of the civil strife' who had 'communicated with foreign countries, and they incited killing of citizens and destruction of public and private property'. It did not say how many had been arrested.

"Members of the opposition bloc Wefaq said earlier that six opposition leaders had been arrested on Thursday morning."

Not a surprising turn of events.

Bahrain Protests Continue; Protesters Encircle Capitol

From the AP:

"Thousands of Shiite protesters in Bahrain have formed a huge human chain around the capital, Manama, as their campaign to loosen the Sunni monarchy's grip on power in the strategic Gulf nation enters its third week.

"No police were in sight Saturday as protesters — men and women — held hands to encircle Manama, where Bahrain's Shiite majority has been leading daily demonstrations to end what they say are discriminatory policies and political persecution.

"Tensions have been high in the Gulf kingdom, the host of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, since a street battle between Sunnis and Shiites on Thursday left at least a dozen people injured."

Bahraini Protesters Once Again Fill Pearl Square in Capital

From the AP article by Hadeel Al-Shalchi and Barbara Surk:

"Thousands of singing and dancing protesters streamed back into Manama's central Pearl Square Saturday after Bahrain's leaders withdrew tanks and riot police following two straight days of a bloody crackdown by security forces in the tiny monarchy.

"The royal family, which was quick to use force earlier this week against demonstrators in the landmark square that has been the heart of the anti-government demonstrations, appeared to back away from further confrontation following international pressure from the West.

"The demonstrators had emulated successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt in attempting to bring political change to Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet — the centerpiece of Washington's efforts to confront Iranian military influence in the region.

"Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, deputy supreme commander of the armed forces, appealed for calm and political dialogue in a brief address on state TV.

"People circling through the square clapped, whistled and wept. Some wore white sheets symbolizing their readiness for martyrdom, while others carried Bahraini flags, flowers and signs that said 'Peaceful.'

"'We are victorious!' they chanted as they marched back into the square that has been the headquarters for their revolt against the Sunni monarchy in the predominantly Shiite island nation.

"They also chanted: 'The people want the removal of the regime.'

"As night fell, defiant protesters erected barriers, wired a sound system, set up a makeshift medical tent and deployed lookouts to warn of approaching security forces.

"President Barack Obama discussed the situation with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, asking him to hold those responsible for the violence accountable. He said in a statement that Bahrain must respect the 'universal rights' of its people and embrace 'meaningful reform.'"

Once again, nebulously important-sounding but completely useless words from Obama. They signify nothing. He and his administration are so carefully vague in their language-- which demonstrates that they really have little understanding of what is happening there and why.

Bahraini Troops Fire on Protesters

From the AP article by Hadeel Al-Shalchi:

"Soldiers opened fire Friday on thousands of protesters defying a government ban and streaming toward the landmark square that had been the symbolic center of the uprising to break the political grip of the Gulf nation's leaders.

"Officials at the main Salmaniya hospital said at least 50 people were injured, some with gunshot wounds. Some doctors and medics on emergency medical teams were in tears as they tended to the wounded. X-rays showed bullets still lodged inside victims.

"'This is a war,' said Dr. Bassem Deif, an orthopedic surgeon examining people with bullet-shattered bones.

"Health ministry officials said in a statement that seven people were critically injured.

"Protesters described a chaotic scene of tear gas clouds, bullets coming from many directions and people slipping in pools of blood as they sought cover. Some claimed the gunfire came from either helicopters or sniper nests, a day after riot police swept through the protest encampment in Pearl Square, killing at least five people and razing the tents and makeshift shelters that were inspired by the demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square.

"The clash came hours after funeral mourners and worshippers at Friday prayers called for the toppling of the Western-allied monarchy in the tiny island nation that is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, the centerpiece of the Pentagon's efforts to confront Iranian military influence. Some members of Bahrain's Sunni ruling system worry that Shiite powerhouse Iran could use Bahrain's majority Shiites as a further foothold in the region."

Obama is running the same by-the-numbers response from Egypt, urging restraint and pretty much vaguely backing the protesters without knowing who they are, what they want, nor who backs them. And of course without taking into account what is in the best interests of the US allies in the region. Amateur ideologue...

From the AP:

"U.S. President Barack Obama condemned the reports of violence against the protesters in Bahrain, Libya and Yemen, urging government restraint.

"'I am deeply concerned about reports of violence in Bahrain, Libya and Yemen. The United States condemns the use of violence by governments against peaceful protesters in those countries and wherever else it may occur,' Obama said. 'The United States urges the governments of Bahrain, Libya and Yemen to show restraint in responding to peaceful protests and to respect the rights of their people.'"

Of course Obama didn't mention of the unrest in Iran. It is interesting how quickly he has jumped onto the protesters band wagon elsewhere, but steadfastly refused to condemn the violent crackdown of the Green Revolution by the Iranian government. What does that say?

Back to the article:

"Bahrain's king appointed Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa to lead a dialogue 'with all parties,' though it was unclear whether furious protesters would respond to the overture. Speaking on Bahrain's State TV, Salman expressed condolences for 'these painful days' and called for unity.

"'We are at a crossroads,' Salman said. 'Youths are going out on the street believing that they have no future in the country, while others are going out to express their love and loyalty. But this country is for you all, for the Shiites and Sunnis.'"

[...]

"At a Shiite mosque in the village of Diraz, an anti-government hotbed, imam Isa Qassim called the Pearl Square assault a 'massacre' and thousands of worshippers chanted: 'The regime must go.'

"In a sign of Bahrain's deep divisions, government loyalists filled Manama's Grand Mosque to hear words of support for the monarchy and take part in a post-sermon march protected by security forces. Many arrived with Bahraini flags draped over the traditional white robes worn by Gulf men. Portraits of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa were distributed.

"'We must protect our country,' said Adnan al-Qattan, the cleric leading prayers. 'We are living in dangerous times.'

"He denounced attempts to 'open the doors to evil and foreign influences' — an apparent reference to suspicions that Shiite powerhouse Iran could take advantages of any gains by Bahrain's Shiites, who account for about 70 percent of the population.

"The pro-government gathering had many nonnative Bahrainis, including South Asians and Sunni Arabs from around the region. Shiite have long complained of policies giving Sunnis citizenship and jobs, including posts in security forces, to offset the Shiite majority."

Lots of activity in Bahrain, and it's hard to say what will happen. However, my money is on the Sunni government staying in place-- especially since Saudi Arabia takes such an interest in keeping Iranian expansionism in check. There might be some token reforms within the Bahraini government, but the main players will stay largely the same. There's no guarantees, of course.

Bahraini Troops Rout Protesters

From the AP article by Hadeel Al-Shalachi:

"Troops and tanks locked down the capital of this tiny Gulf kingdom after riot police swinging clubs and firing tear gas smashed into demonstrators, many of them sleeping, in a pre-dawn assault Thursday that uprooted their protest camp demanding political change. Medical officials said four people were killed.

"Hours after the attack on Manama's main Pearl Square, the military announced a ban on gatherings, saying on state TV that it had 'key parts' of the capital under its control.

"After several days of holding back, the island nation's Sunni rulers unleashed a heavy crackdown, trying to stamp out the first anti-government upheaval to reach the Arab states of the Gulf since the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. In the surprise assault, police tore down protesters' tents, beating men and women inside and blasting some with shotgun sprays of birdshot.

"It was a sign of how deeply the Sunni monarchy — and other Arab regimes in the Gulf — fear the repercussions of a prolonged wave of protests, led by members of the country's Shiite majority but also joined by growing numbers of discontented Sunnis.

"Tiny Bahrain is a pillar of Washington's military framework in the region. It hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, which is a critical counterbalance to Iran. Bahrain's rulers and their Arab allies depict any sign of unrest among their Shiite populations as a move by neighboring Shiite-majority Iran to expand its clout in the region.

[...]

"The capital Manama was effectively shut down Thursday. For the first time in the crisis, tanks rolled into the streets and military checkpoints were set up as army patrols circulated. The Interior Ministry warned Bahrainis to stay off the streets. Banks and other key institutions did not open, and workers stayed home, unable or to afraid to pass through checkpoints to get to their jobs.

"Barbed wire and police cars with flashing blue lights encircled Pearl Square, the site of anti-government rallies since Monday. The square was turned into a field of flattened tents and the strewn belongings of the protesters who had camped there — pieces of clothing and boxes of food.

[...]

"The violence killed four people, said hospital officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

"Bahrain's parliament — minus opposition lawmakers who are staging a boycott — met in emergency session. One pro-government member, Jamila Salman, broke into tears. A leader of the Shiite opposition Abdul-Jalil Khalil said 18 lawmakers resigned to protest the killings.

[...]

"While the protests began as a cry for the country's Sunni monarchy to loosen its grip, the uprising's demands have steadily grown bolder. Many protesters called for the government to provide more jobs and better housing, free all political detainees and abolish the system that offers Bahraini citizenship to Sunnis from around the Middle East.

"Increasingly, protesters also chanted slogans to wipe away the entire ruling dynasty that has led Bahrain for more than 200 years and is firmly backed by the Sunni sheiks and monarchs across the Gulf.

"The stability of Bahrain's government is seen as crucial by its other allies in the Gulf, who — though they rarely say it in public — see Bahrain's Shiite majority as the weak link in their unity against Iranian influence.

"Hard-liners in Iran have often expressed kinship and support for Bahrain's Shiites. But in Bahrain, the community staunchly denies being a tool of Tehran, saying their complaints are rooted in their country's unbalanced system."

How will the US respond, other than urge restraint? Maybe Obama can make some flip-flop speeches again as he struggles to back the right horse.

Bahrain Experiencing Unrest and Violent Protests

Bahrain is yet another country in the Middle East embroiled in civil unrest.

From the AP article by Brian Murphy:

"Thousands of protesters poured into a main square in Bahrain's capital Tuesday in an Egypt-style rebellion that sharply escalated pressure on authorities as the Arab push for change gripped the Gulf for the first time.

"Security forces have battled demonstrators calling for political reforms and greater freedoms over two days, leading to the deaths of two protesters and the main opposition group vowing to freeze its work in parliament in protest.

"In a clear sign of concern over the widening crisis, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa made a rare national TV address, offering condolences for the deaths, pledging an investigation into the killings and promising to push ahead with reforms, which include loosening state controls on the media and Internet.

[...]

"Oppositions groups aren't calling for the ruling Sunni monarchy to be ousted, but they do want an end to its grip on key decisions and government posts.

"Other demands — listed on a poster erected in the square — included the release of all political prisoners, more jobs and housing, an elected Cabinet and the replacement of longtime prime minister, Sheik Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa.

[...]

"The nation's majority Shiites — about 70 percent of the population of some 500,000_ have long complained of discrimination and being blackballed from important state jobs.

"Many in the square waved Bahraini flags and chanted: 'No Sunnis, no Shiites. We are all Bahrainis.' It also appeared they were planning for the long haul. Some groups carried in tents and sought generators to set up under a nearly 300-foot (90-meter) monument cradling a giant white pearl-shaped ball that symbolizes the country's heritage as a pearl diving center.

"Bahrain is one of the most politically volatile nations in the Middle East's wealthiest corner despite having one of the few elected parliaments and some of the most robust civil society groups. A crackdown on perceived dissent last year touched off weeks of riots and clashes in Shiite villages, and an ongoing trial in Bahrain accuses 25 Shiites of plotting against the country's leadership.

"A prolonged showdown could draw in the region's two biggest rivals: Saudi Arabia, as close allies of Bahrain's Sunni monarchy, and Iran, whose hard-liners have spoken in support of the nation's Shiite majority [emphasis mine]."

The last sentence is especially important. It's hard to say exactly what will happen in Bahrain, but the possibility of long, violent protests that escalate into a full-scale revolution is very possible. Clearly the king of Bahrain senses the possibility as demonstrated by his appearance on TV.

The Muslim Brotherhood exists in Bahrain as the Al Eslah Society, the president of which, Isa bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, is a member of Bahrain's royal family. The political wing of the Al Eslah Society is the Al-Menbar Islamic Society. In the Dec. 2010 election, the Al-Menbar Islamic Society won only 2 seats in the Council of Representatives which has 40 members. However, the Al-Menbar Islamic Society is very well organized and, as noted, has associates within the royal family of Bahrain. They could flourish with a little chaos.

If a violent Revolution should happen (which could happen with or without the support of the Muslim Brotherhood), Bahrain could become a key battleground in a proxy war. The Saudis and Iranians could turn the country of Bahrain into something like Beirut from the 1980s with various factions with foreign support fighting for dominance.

It is a place worth watching, and the implications of a weakened and violent Bahrain are significant for the region. Given that the Obama Administration had no contingencies for a revolution in Egypt beyond trotting out Obama to give speeches desperately trying to back the right horse, Bahrain will receive little advice and no help from the US should the situation escalate.