Tensions Simmer and Ships Clash in South China Sea

We'll probably see more of these sort of incidents as China expands its territories from the necessity of an inefficient economy, the U.S. continues to show apathy weakness. Without the stability of America's military presence and with Obama's legacy of betraying allies China's neighbors must either stand-up to the giant under very uncertain circumstances or back down to China's bullying.

From The Wall Street Journal article by Brian Spegele:

Strains between China and its neighbors burst to the surface in two parts of the South China Sea, taking the high-stakes struggle for control over the waters to new levels of friction.

Off Vietnam, dozens of Chinese military and civilian ships clashed with the Vietnamese coast guard, with Vietnamese officials complaining its vessels were repeatedly rammed. On the same day, Philippine police apprehended Chinese fishing vessels loaded with hundreds of sea turtles in disputed waters.  

About 80 Chinese vessels moved into an area near the disputed Paracel Islands, where Hanoi has sought to prevent China from deploying a massive oil rig, said Rear Adm. Ngo Ngoc Thu, vice commander of the Vietnamese coast guard. He said the flotilla included seven military ships and that it was supported by aircraft. 

He said the situation, which started brewing over the weekend, was "very tense" and said six Vietnamese officers had been injured in the standoff.  

The confrontation—by far the most serious in recent years between the two neighbors—marked a significant escalation in Beijing's willingness to press its natural-resource claims, analysts said.  

[...]  

A senior administration official said the White House views the latest escalation as part of a pattern of behavior as China continues to try to advance its territorial claims. "We're obviously very concerned about it," the official said. "We have conveyed our concerns to the Chinese."

With a strongly written letter that might have used the word "dude,"  no doubt. Seriously, Obama has shown repeatedly that his words are hollow-- if not outright lies-- and that he's most concerned about shifting rather than protecting allies or even American lives.

President Barack Obama toured the region last month, stressing U.S. security cooperation. The latest escalation of tensions in the South China Sea reinforces that the disputes "are not going to be solved with one trip or one speech," said Michael Green, senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "And it shows that the Chinese side is not fazed by the negative reaction in the region," Mr. Green said.

If China's not careful, the First Lady might hashtag them with a sad face. That'll show 'em.

Security scholars said the latest escalation in tensions is the cumulative result of deep-seated mistrust over China's intentions among smaller regional players combined with Beijing's increased assertiveness as well as a lack of mechanisms to prevent and manage crises. 

The confrontation also illuminated the role of China's state-owned energy companies in helping advance China's territorial ambitions, despite frequent assertions by executives that they are driven by profit and not politics.  

[...]  

The Philippines on Wednesday apprehended a Chinese fishing vessel "carrying large numbers of endangered species" near Half Moon Shoal, a sandbar in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea and a hotbed for illegal sea-turtle poaching. Philippines police senior inspector Dante Padilla said an inspection of the boat yielded around 500 sea turtles, some of them dead.  

He said the police had arrested the captain of the Chinese vessel and its 10 crew  

The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement it seized the Chinese fishing boat "to enforce maritime laws and to uphold Philippine sovereign rights over its [exclusive economic zone]." 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying urged the Philippines to release the fishermen and to refrain from taking further provocative actions. Ms. Hua said the Chinese Embassy in Manila had complained to the Philippine government. 

The Philippines and China have overlapping maritime claims in several areas in the South China Sea. Amid China's recent aggressive assertions of its claims in the dispute areas, the Philippines had brought its case before an international tribunal to rally international support for its territorial claim.  

On his visit to the region last month, President Obama assured the Philippines that American military support is "ironclad," though he left vague whether the U.S. would come to the aid of the Philippines in its island disputes.

Of course Obama say "ironclad" and then not commit to defending the Philippines. Community organizers give speeches in which they make distorted claims and then give false reassurances. Then they move on to the next controversy and expect people to forget their first speech. It's crap. And Obama's been practicing it for decades. Did anyone truly believe that would all change after being elected following and ugly campaign?

I think there's little doubt China will continue to test the limit of what it's neighbors and the U.S. will tolerate. And the Obama Administration will tolerate quite a lot-- especially when others bear the brunt of the China's bullying. China's neighbors on the other hand... I don't know. There's a lot of trouble brewing in Asia.

Internationally, things look pretty bleak right now. Russia is invading Ukraine and stirring up a hornet's nest in the rest of Europe. Iran is practicing blowing up American ships. Islamic Extremism has taken a firm root in several Middle Eastern countries. And China is encroaching all along its oceans.

Unless there's a dramatic shift in the near future (1 year), I'm betting there will be a fair-sized conflict in either Asia and Europe. That is, of course, in addition to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

U.S. Warns China Not to Annex (More) Asian Territories and Islands



Don't worry. According to Obama and Kerry, using these troops is not proper for the 21st-- and it's a sign of weakness too.

Or else what? My bet is that Kerry will tell them that they're not acting properly for the 21st Century. *gag*

From Reuters:

China should not doubt the U.S. commitment to defend its Asian allies and the prospect of economic retaliation should also discourage Beijing from using force to pursue territorial claims in Asia in the way Russia has in Crimea, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday. 

Daniel Russel, President Barack Obama's diplomatic point man for East Asia, said it was difficult to determine what China's intentions might be, but Russia's annexation of Crimea had heightened concerns among U.S. allies in the region about the possibility of China using force to pursue its claims. 

"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model." [Bwah ha ha! Stop it! You're killing me!]  

This was especially so given the extent of China's economic interdependence with the United States and its Asia neighbors, Russel said.  

[...]  

Russel termed the deployment of large numbers of Chinese vessels in its dispute with the Philippines in the South China Sea "problematic" and said that Beijing had taken "what to us appears to be intimidating steps." 

"It is incumbent of all of the claimants to foreswear intimidation, coercion and other non-diplomatic or extra-legal means," he said. 

In Asia, China also has competing territorial claims with Japan and South Korea, as well as with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan in potentially energy-rich waters.

Oh yeah, and also various islands (including Pagasa Island) located between Japan, China, and the Philippines.

China has somewhat recently turned to hard-Left regime, and as the country slumps economically, as the living conditions for China's citizens continues to deteriorate, China has focused more and more on the expansion of its territory. Nothing drums up support at home like a great, patriotic conflict against usurpers and aggressors.

Beyond that, Marxism is never self-sufficient so it has to expand, find a patron to pay its bills, or collapse. There is no patron large enough to cover China's expenses, so it has to either expand or reform. And there's really to incentive for the Chinese leadership to reform.

I really don't think that the State Department staff sending out selfies of themselves is going to worry China all that much.

Will Chinese Troops Seize Zhongye Island from the Philippines?

Well, according to the China Daily Mail they will.

The following report is a translation from Chinese media. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily Mail. 

Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years. 

It will be an intolerable insult to China 

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. 

The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China.
There will be no invasion into Filipino territories. 

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island.

Well, if this is to be believed (and it reads as a translation of pretty typical Chinese propaganda chest-beating), China's hardliners are hoping for an easy military victory to buttress up their increasingly unpopular regime. Can you say "powder keg for Obama to completely ignore because he's intent on controlling your health insurance?"

Is this credible? Maybe. Obama has shown nothing but weakness and disinterest in the rest of the world-- especially with Asian allies. Perhaps China has plans to forcibly increase its influence in Asia, and this is a test run to see how the rest of Asia, the U.S. and other powers like Russia, respond. If so-- and all of this is a lot of ifs-- then China could be thinking of invading Taiwan. I have no doubts that Obama would allow that to happen.

You know... to allow for peace in our time.


UPDATE: I should note that when I ran a search for "Pagasa Island" (as Zhongye Island is known in the Philippines), on the major Philippine newspapers' websites, I came up with a couple of interesting articles.

There is, in fact, a military build up on the island according to a 12/4/13 article in Malaya Business Insight.

The government has allotted P479.75 million in upgrading Navy and Air Force facilities at the Pagasa Island, one of the nine areas occupied by Filipino troops in the Spratly Islands. 

The Department of National Defense said the project, which is at the Defense Acquisition of System level, aims to boost the implementation of the AFP modernization program. 

The project, which will go through public bidding, is funded by Republic Act 7898 or the AFP Modernization Law of 1995.  

On December 2012, President Aquino signed into law RA 10349 or the Revised AFP Modernization Law extending the program for another 15 years. 

A security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the project seeks to upgrade the airstrip and improve Navy facilities at Pagasa Island, which serves as the seat of government of Kalayaan town, Palawan. 

The eight other areas in the Spratly Islands occupied by troops include Lawak Island, Panatag Shoal, Likas Island, Parola Island, Panata Island, Kota Island, Rizal Reef and Ayungin Shoal. These areas also form part of Kalayaan town. 

A military official said it was very important to improve the facilities “because that is our complete station in the Kalayaan Island Group.” He said upgrading facilities in the island will mean “better monitoring.” 

“Our awareness will be improved,” the source said, adding that the facilities in the island are only “basic requirements” to sustain the needs of troops in the island. 

The Spratly Islands or the Kalayaan Island Group is situated at the South China Sea or West Philippine Sea. It is a chain of islands and islets believed to be rich in oil and mineral deposits. 

It is being claimed in part or in whole by the Philippines, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.  

The strongest in terms of military might, China, has turned aggressive in its claims over the past years.

I also found this article "2 Chinese ships spotted anew near disputed island" from The Daily Tribune from August 24, 2013.

Despite rough sea conditions in the South China Sea, at least two Chinese maritime surveillance ships (MSS) were monitored near Ayungin Shoal where Philippine Navy personnel are stationed. 

Kalayaan Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon said based on the latest information given to him by local fishermen who sought shelter in Ayungin Shoal around noontime last Monday, two Chinese MSS were spotted in the area. 

“Local fishermen sought shelter in Ayungin due to bad weather conditions and spotted two Chinese ships stationary about 200 meters from the shoal,” he added.  

But there was no aggressive move against the local fishermen, Bito-onon said.
According to him, three other unidentified “huge ships” were seen approximately five kilometers from Pagasa Island, the seat of Kalayaan local government. 

The three unidentified ships are suspected to be harvesting corals within the country’s territorial waters. 

Meanwhile, Bito-onon reiterated calls for the national government to fast-track the planned dock in Pagasa Island to boost local fishing industry in the area. 

A better fishing facility in Pagasa Island, Bito-onon said, will surely attract investment in the area, which is known to be a rich fishing ground. 

Chinese vessels have maintained presence in Ayungin Shoal since last May despite the presence of Philippine Navy personnel there.

These two articles certainly do not mean that the Chinese plan to invade the Philippines, but it is enough for me to not completely dismiss the idea. We'll have to pay attention to the Chinese propaganda and see if they start ramping up the anti-Philippine rhetoric. If they do, then I'd start to give this Chinese threat some serious thought.